The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of WWAC radio station:

　　"To reverse a decline in listener numbers, our owners have decided that WWAC must change from its current rock-music format. The decline has occurred despite population growth in our listening area, but that growth has resulted mainly from people moving here after their retirement. We must make listeners of these new residents. We could switch to a music format tailored to their tastes, but a continuing decline in local sales of recorded music suggests limited interest in music. Instead we should change to a news and talk format, a form of radio that is increasingly popular in our area."

　　Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

　　【满分范文赏析】

　　This memo recommends that WWAC radio station shift from rock-and-roll (R&R) music programming to news and talk programming. To support this recommendation the manager indicates that the number of WWAC listeners is decreasing while the number of older people in WWAC's listening area is increasing. The manager also points out that area sales of music recordings are in decline. Finally, the manager cites the success of news stations in nearby cities. Careful scrutiny of the manager's argument reveals several unproven assumptions, which render the argument unconvincing.

　　【本段结构】

　　本文采用了标准的Argument开头段结构，即C—A—F的开头结构。本段首先概括原文的Conclusion，之后简要提及原文为支持其结论所引用的一系列Assumption及细节，最后给出开头段到正文段的过渡句，指出原文的Flaw，即这些Assumption无法让原文逻辑上没有问题。

　　【本段功能】

　　作为Argument开头段，本段具体功能就在于发起攻击并概括原文的结论，即WWAC广播台应当把当下的摇滚音乐节目更换为新闻访谈节目。本段接下来提到了原文中为支持之前的Conclusion所提供的证据，包括WWAC的听众正在下降然而WWAC广播地区的老年人的数量正在上升，这些地区音乐唱片的数量也在下降，以及邻近地区另外一家广播台的成功案例。文章提及这些信息，为是在正文段中对这些Assumption即将进行的具体攻击做铺垫。

　　First, the manager assumes that the decline in the number of WWAC listeners is attributable to the station's current format. Perhaps the decline is due instead to WWAC's specific mix of R&R music, or to transmission problems at the station. Without ruling out these and other possible reasons for the decline, the manager cannot convince an audience that changing the format would reverse the trend.

　　【本段结构】

　　本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第一个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。

　　【本段功能】

　　作为正文第一段，本段攻击原文所犯的第一个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。原文当中假设广播地区的人数下降导致了WWAC听众下降的Assumption是不成立的，因为可能存在其他原因。因此在没有考虑这些因素的情况下，原文当中的这个观点是不合理的。

　　Secondly, the manager's assumption that older people favor all-news programming is unsubstantiated. Perhaps WWAC listeners are dedicated R&R fans who will continue to prefer this type of programming as they grow older. Or perhaps as WWAC's regular audience ages, they will prefer a mix of R&R and news programming rather than one format to the total exclusion of the other. Besides, the number of young people in the listening area might be increasing as well. In short, the mere fact that the number of older people in WWAC's listening area is increasing suggests nothing about WWAC's best programming strategy.

　　【本段结构】

　　本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第二个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。

　　【本段功能】

　　作为正文第二段，本段攻击原文所犯的第二个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。原文假设老年人并不会喜欢在广播电视台收听摇滚音乐，但有可能实际情况是恰恰相反的，因为人们爱听摇滚乐，即便岁数增大也会收听。或者另外一种情况，老年人数上升并不意味着摇滚音乐就没有了听众。在没有考虑到这些因素的情况下，原文的这个观点是没有说服力的。

　　Finally, it is unwarranted to infer from the success of all-news stations in surrounding areas that WWAC will also succeed by duplicating the same format. Those stations might well owe their success to their powerful transmitters, popular newscasters, or other factors. Besides, the very success of these stations suggests that the area's radio listeners might favor those well-established news providers over the fledgling all-news WWAC.

　　【本段结构】

　　本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第四个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。

　　【本段功能】

　　作为正文第四段，本段攻击原文所犯的第四个重要逻辑错误——类比类错误。原文假设邻近地区某广播台的成功模式可以应用到WWAC广播台。但实际上这个广播台成功的原因并非是WWAC能够做到的，也就是这种类比并不能成立。所以，原文的这个观点是没有依据的。